Uncertainty

People are notoriously bad at planning, but why? What is the fog of war, and how should we adjust our planning to account for it?

Leaders should be able to make direction clear, clarify uncertainty.

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I hear more and more that leaders need to be able to “work with fuzzy”. Leaders need to be able to make directionally correct decisions in the face of uncertainty and underspecified problems. I’ve also heard this “work with fuzzy” notion labeled “the cone of uncertainty”.

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I find myself constantly writing notes about dealing with uncertainty. In the past I’ve written about working with fuzzy, directional correctness, the cone of uncertainty, and probably more. It’s of no surprise that I stumbled upon yet another cliche way of describing the same thing:

You can’t see the forest through the trees.

Apparently it’s a fairly old and popular saying. You can look up the etymology, and I suggest doing so. Fun history.

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Also, lots of war metaphors.

Make time for planning. Wars are won in the general’s tent.

Tactics win battles, logistics win wars.

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Someone I respect most once told me our jobs as engineers was not to always build correct solutions, but to always build solutions that can be corrected quickly.

It’s not our job to always build correct solutions, but to always build solutions that can be corrected quickly.

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We over estimate what we can do in a year but underestimate what we can do in five.

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